I Nowemapa 2022, he 79,935 mau kaʻa ikehu hou(65,338 mau kaʻa uila maʻemaʻe a me 14,597 plug-in hybrid vehicles) i kūʻai ʻia ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, he 31,3% ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki ma ka makahiki, a ʻo 7,14% ka piʻi ʻana o nā kaʻa ikehu hou.Ma 2022, e kūʻai ʻia aku ka huina o 816,154 mau kaʻa ikehu hou, a ʻo ka nui o ka makahiki ma 2021 ma kahi o 630,000, a ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo ia ma kahi o 900,000 i kēia makahiki.
Makemake wau e hoʻolimalima i kekahi manawa e nānā i ka mākeke US, a e ʻike hoʻi inā hiki iā Biden ke hoʻomohala i nā kaʻa ikehu hou i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma hope o ka hoʻolei ʻana.
▲Figure 1. Ke kūkulu ʻana i nā kaʻa ikehu hou ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa mai 2010
Hāʻawi ka Inflation Cut Act i $369 biliona e hakakā i ka hoʻololi ʻana i ke aniau a e kālele ana i ke kākoʻo ʻana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā kaʻa uila, a ʻike mākou ua hopu pū kēia kulekele i ka manaʻo.
◎Hoʻokuʻu ʻauhau kaʻa hou:Hāʻawi i kahi hōʻaiʻē ʻauhau o US $7,500 no kēlā me kēia kaʻa, a paʻa ke kālā mai Ianuali 2023 a hiki i Dekemaba 2032.Hoʻopau i ka palena kālā mua o 200,000 kaʻa no nā mea hana kaʻa.
◎Nā kaʻa i hoʻohana ʻia (ma lalo o $25,000): ʻO ka ʻauhau ʻauhau he 30% o ke kumu kūʻai kūʻai o ke kaʻa kahiko, me ke kapa o $4,000, a ua paʻa ke kōkua mai Ianuali 2023 a i Dekemaba 2032.
◎Hoʻonui ʻia ka hōʻaiʻē ʻauhau no ka hoʻonui ʻana i ka ikehu hou i 2032, a hiki i 30% o ke kumukūʻai hiki ke hōʻaiʻē ʻia, a ua hoʻonui ʻia ka palena kiʻekiʻe o ka ʻauhau ʻauhau mai ka $30,000 i ka $100,000.
◎$1 biliona e hoʻomaʻemaʻe i nā kaʻa kaumaha e like me nā kaʻa kula, nā kaʻa a me nā kaʻa ʻōpala.
▲Figure 2. ʻO ka wahi hoʻomaka no ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā kaʻa ikehu hou ma ka mākeke US
Mahele 1
Hāʻawi ʻia nā kaʻa ʻenehana hou ma ka mākeke US
Mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ka lako huahana, ʻaʻole liʻiliʻi loa ka mākeke US, no laila ʻo ka LEAF o Nissan i kēia manawa i mua.
▲Helu 3.Hoʻolako huahana ma ka mākeke US
●Nā Motors Nui
Ma muli o ka hoʻomanaʻo ʻana o nā huahana, he liʻiliʻi ka nui o General Motors i 2022.ʻO ka mana hana i hoʻolālā ʻia ma 2025 he 1 miliona, a manaʻo ʻia e hana ʻia he 600,000 mau ʻāpana.No laila, i ka makahiki 2023, e hoʻokuʻu ʻia nā huahana me EQUINOX maʻemaʻe uila, Blazer EV, etc. o Bolt BEV e hele maopopo ana i 70,000 mau kaʻa.
ʻO 2023 kahi manawa hoʻololi no GM.Me ka hoʻomaka ʻana o ka hana ʻana ma ka hale hana pākaukau hui, ʻae ʻia ka leo holoʻokoʻa.Ma muli o ka hoʻokaʻawale ʻana o ka pila i ka ʻaiʻē ʻauhau i ʻelua ʻāpana like o USD 3,750/kaʻa, ua manaʻo ʻia nā koi o ka hui kūloko no nā pākahi i hoʻohana ʻia i nā kaʻa uila a me nā mea nui a me nā mea nui i hoʻohana ʻia:
◎ʻO ke kālā mua $3,750/kaʻa:40% o ka waiwai o nā mea pākaukau kī(me ka nickel, manganese, cobalt, lithium, graphite, etc.)lawe ʻia a hana ʻia e ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa a i ʻole nā ʻāina i kau inoa i nā ʻaelike kālepa manuahi me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, a i ʻole i hana hou ʻia ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau.(2023), e hoʻonui ʻia ka hapa e 10% i kēlā me kēia makahiki mai 2024 a i 80% e 2027.
◎ʻElua kālā US$3,750/kaʻa:ʻoi aku ma mua o 50% o ka waiwai oʻāpana pākaukau(me nā electrodes maikaʻi a me ka maikaʻi ʻole, ke keleawe keleawe, ka electrolyte, nā pūnaewele pākaukau, a me nā modula)(2023), 2024-2025 Ua ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua a i ʻole like me 60%, a e hoʻonui ʻia ka hapa e 10% i kēlā me kēia makahiki mai 2026, a hiki i 100% e 2029.
No laila, hiki iā GM ke loaʻa i kahi haʻawina o 3,750 US kālā ma aneʻi.
▲Helu 4.Puke Lahui Huahana
●Ford
Hoʻolālā ʻo Ford e loaʻa i kahi mana hana honua makahiki ma kahi o 600,000 mau kaʻa uila ma ka hopena o 2023 a ʻoi aku ma mua o 2 miliona mau kaʻa e 2026.No laila, mai ka hiʻohiʻona o ka māhele ʻana, hiki ke kūʻai aku ʻo Ford ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ma mua o 450,000 mau ʻāpana i 2023.
◎Mustang Mach-E:270,000 mau ʻāpana i kēlā me kēia makahiki(ʻAmelika ʻĀkau, ʻEulopa a me Kina, hiki i ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa ke helu no 200,000 mau ʻāpana).
◎Uila F-150:150,000 i kēlā me kēia makahiki(ʻAmelika ʻĀkau).
◎E-Kaahele:150,000 mau ʻāpana i kēlā me kēia makahiki(ʻAmelika ʻĀkau a me ʻEulopa, manaʻo ʻia he 100,000 mau ʻāpana i ka US).
◎SUV hou:30,000 ʻāpana(ʻEulopa).
▲Helu 5.ʻO ka hoʻolālā hiki ke hana ʻo Ford
Ua māhele ʻia ʻo Stellantis i ʻelua ʻāpana.ʻO ka ʻāpana Chrysler kumu.Mai ka manaʻo o kēia manawa, ʻaʻole i mākaukau nā pākahi o ʻAmelika ʻĀkau.Hiki ke hoʻomalu ʻia e nā plug-in hybrids i 2023, hiki ke hoʻoikaika nui i ka mana plug-in ma United States.ʻO ka nui o ka uila uila i 2023.
◎Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻo Dodge i kāna kumu hoʻohālike plug-in hybrid HORNET, i kūkulu ʻia ma ke kahua kaʻana like Alfa Romeo Tonale, i kēia manawa ua hoʻokuʻu i ka huina o HORNET R/T plug-in hybrid.
◎Ua hoʻokuʻu ʻo Jeep i kāna kumu hoʻohālike uila maʻemaʻe mua ʻo Avenger, e hoʻomaka ana mai kahi hiʻohiʻona SUV uila maʻemaʻe liʻiliʻi(ʻaʻole kūʻai ʻia kēia ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa), ʻO ka hiʻohiʻona uila maʻemaʻe mua i hoʻokuʻu ʻia ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau he SUV nui i kapa ʻia ʻo Recon(2024 hoʻomaka i ka hana ʻana o ka Recon ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa).
▲Helu 6.Stellantis kaʻa ikehu hou
ʻO nā huahana o Iapana a me South Korea e pili ana i kahi kālā no ka hui ʻana ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau.
Mahele 2
ʻO nā kaohi maʻamau i nā haʻawina
Mai ka UShoʻonohonoho mua ke kālā i nā kumu mua, pono lākou e hoʻokō i ka manawa like e hiki ai ke ʻae ʻia no ka haʻi ʻōlelo:
◎Pono e hui ʻia nā kaʻa hou ma ʻAmelika ʻĀkau.
◎Mai ka makahiki 2025, ʻaʻole e unuhi ʻia, hana ʻia a hana hou ʻia nā minela koʻikoʻi no nā pila e nā hui haole o ka hopohopo i helu ʻia ma ka Infrastructure Investment and Employment Act;mai 2024, ʻaʻole e hana ʻia a ʻākoakoa ʻia nā ʻāpana pākaukau e nā hui ʻē aʻe.
◎Nā koi kumu kūʻai kaʻa:i kaupalena ʻia i nā kaʻa uila, nā kaʻa a me nā SUV i kūʻai ʻia ʻaʻole ʻoi aku ma mua o $80,000, a me nā sedans i kūʻai ʻia ma mua o $55,000.
◎Nā koi kālā no nā mea kūʻai kaʻa:ʻO ka palena o ka loaʻa kālā pilikino he US $150,000, ʻo ke poʻo o ka ʻohana he US $225,000, a ʻo ka mea hoʻopili hui he US $300,000.
No nā mea nona Tesla ma Kaleponi, USA, ʻaʻole hiki ke hoʻokō ʻia kēia kūlana.ʻO ka hopena holoʻokoʻa i kēia manawa ke nānā aku i ʻekolu mau US General Motors, Ford a me Stellantis(Chrysler).No laila, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki e hiki mai ana Aia kahi uptick ma Tesla, a ʻike kēia mau hui ʻekolu i ka piʻi nui loa o ka noi kaʻa.No laila, paʻa ka pilikia o kēia manawa ma ka mākeke US i ka mana hana pākaukau.ʻAʻole e like me ʻEulopa, ka mea i hoʻomaka e hoʻoikaika i ka ulu ʻana o nā kaʻa, ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hana pākaukau kūloko.I kēia manawa, ua hopu ʻo ʻAmelika i nā hui kaʻa a hoʻokuʻu iā lākou e hoʻomohala i ka mana hana pākaukau kūloko.ʻano hana.
Manaʻo ʻia ʻaʻole hiki ke kiʻekiʻe ka nui o nā kaʻa uila ma 2023 e like me ka 1.8 miliona i manaʻo ʻia, ma muli o ka hiki ʻole ke hoʻomau i ka mana hana o ka pākaukau.No laila, ma 2023-2025, hiki ke helu ʻia ka nui o ke kūʻai ʻana o ke kaʻa uila holoʻokoʻa ma muli o ka piʻi ʻana o ka mana hana pākaukau ma ʻAmelika ʻAmelika.He wahi nānā koʻikoʻi kēia.
▲Helu 7.ʻO ka pākaukau ma ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa i lilo i kumu kumu
Hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo: I kēia manawa, ʻoi aku ka mākeke kaʻa kaʻa hou o Kina ma mua o ka honua no kekahi mau makahiki.Ma muli o ka nui nui, ke hoʻololi nei mākou i ka mākeke, a pono mākou e hele i waho i kēia kaʻina hana.Akā ke hele nei mākou i kēia mau mākeke, he mau makahiki ma hope o mākou a ke komo nei i ka wā incubation me nā kālā aupuni, paʻa mākou e hālāwai me ke kūʻē ikaika.ʻO ia ke kumu like i ka wā i hoʻolilo ai mākou i ke kālā i kekahi mau makahiki i hala aku nei, ʻaʻole mākou makemake i nā kaʻa haole a me nā bateria haole e loaʻa ke kālā.I nā mele manawa like ʻole, pehea ka hana e pono ai kekahi naʻauao!
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Jan-03-2023